The Real Cost of Undocumented Status for College Graduates
How legal status impacts education-occupation mismatch and lifetime earnings, supported by a novel machine learning analysis of national survey data.
Based on the whitepaper: "Using Machine Learning to Estimate the Effect of Undocumented Status on Education-Occupation Mismatch for College Graduates" by Sovero, V. et al..
The Wage Penalty
Undocumented college graduates face a severe wage penalty, averaging 8% overall and rising above 20% for those with the highest probability of being undocumented.
Education-Occupation Mismatch
Earning a degree doesn't guarantee working in that field. Undocumented graduates experience much higher rates of both "Vertical Mismatch" (working below their education) and "Horizontal Mismatch" (working outside their degree field).
The STEM Context
In STEM fields, the mismatch differences narrow significantly, but the wage penalty remains stark. This indicates the issue isn't job placement, but pay disparities within the occupation itself.
The Impact of State Policy
Policy matters. Wage and mismatch penalties are significantly smaller in states with inclusive immigrant policy climates.
States are color-coded by the severity of the gap between citizens and undocumented graduates. Click any state to see its specific outcomes.